Turkey’s Political And Economical Dilemma

Turkey (TUR) has a growing population and an expanding economy but depends practically completely on imported oil and natural gas for its energy needs, which have become extremely expensive.

In 2012 the population of Turkey was 75 million and is expected to grow to 100 million by the year 2030. Its GDP is about $800 Billion or about $10,000 per capita.

Since 2001 oil consumption has increased from about 230.7 million barrels to 250.7 million barrels in 2012 but became of an increase in the cost of imported oil from $22.81 per barrel to $109.08 per barrel during the same period, total foreign exchange paid for oil imports reached $27.35 billion in 2012.

Natural gas consumption increases have been more rapid, rising from 564.8 Billion cubic feet in 2001 to 1,634.4 Billion cubic feet in 2012 at an estimated foreign exchange cost of $16.6 billion.

Altogether, foreign exchange costs for oil, gas and coal in 2012 are estimated at $47.05 billion or about 6.0% of GDP and $627.3 per capita, which proportionately is much higher than the costs incurred by the USA.

Future economic growth will require more energy imports which can hardly be sustainable. Foreign exchange costs may be reduced if more cooperative arrangements can be made with neighboring countries in the Eastern Mediterranean where vast natural gas discoveries have already been made especially in Israel and Cyprus and according to a (statement by the CEO of Noble Energy Inc.) (NBL) these are prospects of discovering 3 billion barrels of oil in the offshore border between Cyprus and Israel. In the meantime, no exploration at all has taken place in the Aegean Sea because of fundamental disagreements on sovereignty without much effort to reach any wise diplomatic compromise through direct negotiations or international arbitration. In the meantime both Turkey and Greece pay enormous amounts for energy imports and spend additional billions of dollars for extra armaments in case of war between the two countries. The situation is similar in China and it’s conflict with all neighbors on the sovereignty around several islands, which is believed, are surrounded with potential oil and gas resources.

Greece, suffering from expensive energy imports, as much, if not more than Turkey has been unable to even carry out seismic surveys in the Aegean Sea because of Turkish military threats and has turned the limited resource of its national petroleum company to explorations in the Ionian Sea where natural gas prospects seem to exist.

Why should two neighboring countries suffering from very heavy burdens of FX for oil and gas imports not set aside the question of sovereignty and concentrate on rational compromise exploration in Aegean Sea? Write to me and let’s discuss.

A full analysis of the Energy Situation and Prospects of Turkey is available. The purpose of this short article is to invite comments and especially new ideas on how to solve this serious problem for the benefit of both Greece and Turkey and neighboring countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, including Cyprus and Israel.

​

// < ![CDATA[
// < ![CDATA[
// < ![CDATA[
// < ![CDATA[
//

US Vice-President Mr Joe Biden on his arrival at the Larnaca Airport in Cyprus

Statement of the US Vice-President Mr Joe Biden on his arrival at the Larnaca, Cyprus Airport

Thank you for coming to greet Jill and me personally.

I have been looking forward to this visit for a long time. Ever since I was elected to the US Senate way back in 1973. It’s great to finally be here in Cyprus and I am told I am the first US Vice President to be in Cyprus since Vice President Lyndon Johnson visited this beautiful island.

I came here at the invitation of your President and the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. And I wanted to come to primarily underscore the value the US attaches to our growing cooperation with the Republic of Cyprus. This relationship is now a genuine strategic partnership. And it holds even greater promise, Mr. Minister.

I look forward to sitting down tomorrow with the President to discuss a shared agenda. Cyprus’ growing leadership in the eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus’ support for the mission to eliminate chemical weapons from Syria and help prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Its role in Europe and in the regional energy security. And our continued cooperation on search and rescue, crisis response and counter-terrorism. There is much to discuss. And tomorrow the President and I will discuss events in Ukraine. We have to be resolute and united in the face of Russian intervention.

Also I know that the Cypriot people have faced tough economic challenges and have already made painful sacrifices. I have been pleased to see the government make good on the progress of economic reform. I believe the economy is beginning to turn a corner and we look forward to work with you to deepen our trade involvement and restore growth and prosperity.

Of course, an important focus of our conversations will be the settlement process. I look forward to meeting with the leaders of both communities, the leader of the Greek Cypriot community tomorrow and the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community the following day.

The US, I want to be clear about this, recognises only one legitimate Government of the Republic of Cyprus. And my visit and meetings throughout the island, will not change that. It is my personal position, it is the position of the United States of America and it is the position of the entire world, save one country.

It is long past time, 40 years, that all Cypriots are reunited, in a bizonal, bicommunal federation. I have been encouraged by the steps that have recently been taken. The joint declaration on February 11, the visit of the Greek Cypriot negotiator in Ankara and of the Turkish Cypriot negotiator to Athens. Support from the international community and the seriousness of purpose we have seen in this process so far. After so many rounds of talks, and so many years of stalemate, it’s legitimate to ask a question whether this time can be any different.

When I think of that question, I am reminded of the words of my friend and former colleague in the US, George Mitchell, the US envoy to Northern Ireland who said “we had 700 days of failure, and one day of success” referring to his mission to Northern Ireland. Peace is always possible. But it requires engagement not just from leaders but from citizens. In that respect, I am encouraged to hear of the joint initiative from Cypriot political, civic and business leaders. Historic religious services and dialogue and the restoration of sacred sites throughout the island.

Now I have heard that the local press assumes I am coming with a plan for peace in my back pocket to solve the Cyprus problem. I would like to put that rumour to rest. I came here on behalf of the US to help you get a solution, not to present or impose one. Many of you know that I have been personally following events in Cyprus for more than 40 years, long enough to know that only Cypriots can decide on a vision for your future, and only Cypriots can exercise the courage necessary to make that vision real. Imagine what can happen if you make sure that this time is different. That this time a solution is reached. It would mean incredibly greater prosperity, greater security, and a future of limitless possibilities for a generation free from the straight jacket that decades of division have imposed upon this island. This island can and should be the bedrock of stability and opportunity for Europe and Eastern Mediterranean.

The story of the 20th century in Europe was one where barriers fell and peace and prosperity rose up in their place. That can and should happen on this beautiful island. I have travelled to Cyprus today because I believe this time can be different. Whether it will depends on the people of this island. But my wife and I look forward to seeing as much as we can of your beautiful island, Mr Minister, and to meet as many Cypriots as we can. And again, to gain a better appreciation for their lives and their hopes. So let me end where I began. Thanking President Anastasiades for his cooperation and for his efforts to help build a genuine strategic partnership with the US. A partnership between our countries that holds even greater promise in the future. Thank you for greeting me and good night.

Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE:NBL): Geopolitical Risks & Interests in Israel

This latest article features an in-depth analysis of Noble Energy Inc.’s strategic partnerships with their select neighboring countries in Mediterranean, evaluating profitability from an investment, geopolitical, and macro-economic scale.